Stage-by-Stage Favorites – Tour de France 2025

Stage favorites

From 5 July to 27 July 2025, the Tour de France will follow an all-French route: 21 stages (7 flat, 6 hilly, 6 mountain) and 2 time trials, totalling 3 320 km and 52 500 m of climbing. From Flemish cobbles and Breton walls to Pyrenean peaks and Alpine giants, every day suits a different kind of specialist. Below you’ll find the three top favorites for each stage plus a quick look at the day’s profile and key talking points.

Saturday 5 July, 184 riders spread across 23 teams roll out from Lille Métropole.

Stage 1 – Lille → Lille (185 km, cobbles & hills)

Saturday 5 July. A big loop around the Lille suburbs strings together five cobbled sectors and several northern “bergs” – practically a mini Paris-Roubaix on day one! Lead teams must already jostle for position on Camphin-en-Pévèle and Carrefour de l’Arbre or risk losing precious seconds. The finishing drag up to the Grand-Place suits powerful sprinters who can handle the cobbles.
Favorites: Tim Merlier, Jonathan Milan, Jasper Philipsen.
Winner: Jasper Philipsen

Stage 2 – Lauwin-Planque → Boulogne-sur-Mer (209 km, explosive finish)

Sunday 6 July. Straight west to the Opal Coast, constantly exposed to sea breezes. The last hour winds above the cliffs before the brutal Derniers Souvenirs ramp: 800 m at over 10 % on cobbles. Punchy classics riders must strike at the right moment, while GC contenders watch for echelons on the Lys plain.
Favorites: Mathieu van der Poel, Tadej Pogačar, Wout van Aert.
Winner: Mathieu van der Poel

Stage 3 – Valenciennes → Dunkirk (178 km, wind-swept flats)

Monday 7 July. Classic northern racing: long straights, open fields, sharp turns. Cross-winds from the North Sea could split the bunch across French Flanders. The 2-km run-in along Malo-les-Bains promenade favours pure speedsters – if they survive the chaos.
Favorites: Tim Merlier, Jonathan Milan, Jasper Philipsen.
Winner: Tim Merlier

Stage 4 – Amiens → Rouen (174 km, leg-sapping finale)

Tuesday 8 July. Deceptively easy at first, the last 20 km roll through the Seine-Maritime hills. Saint-Hilaire climb (1.1 km at 7 %) leads into a twisting run through the old town – perfect for punchers who can re-accelerate.
Favorites: Wout van Aert, Mathieu van der Poel, Tadej Pogačar.
Winner: Tadej Pogačar

Stage 5 – Caen → Caen (33 km, flat ITT)

Wednesday 9 July. The first time trial is entirely on Caen’s plain: wide roads, pristine tarmac, but a permanent westerly. Pure rouleurs hunt the win while GC hopefuls watch the clock.
Favorites: Remco Evenepoel, Wout van Aert, Stefan Küng.
Winner: Remco Evenepoel

Stage 6 – Bayeux → Vire (202 km, Normandy breakers)

Thursday 10 July. The Bessin and bocage offer narrow, undulating roads (2 500 m D+). Sprinter teams will struggle to control breakaways on these hedge-lined lanes. The slightly uphill finish (4 %) in Vire suits a fast puncher or late soloist.
Favorites: Thibau Nys, Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert.
Winner: Ben Healy

Stage 7 – Saint-Malo → Mûr-de-Bretagne (197 km, double wall)

Friday 11 July. Central Brittany serves up false flats and windy ribinou. The riders climb Mûr-de-Bretagne twice (2 km at almost 10 %, max 15 %). A true arena for punchy climbers.
Favorites: Mathieu van der Poel, Thibau Nys, Wout van Aert.
Winner: Tadej Pogačar

Stage 8 – Saint-Méen-le-Grand → Laval (171 km, uphill sprint)

Saturday 12 July. A quieter transition to the Mayenne. The finish outside the Espace Mayenne rises at 3 % for 800 m – tough for feather-weight sprinters.
Favorites: Tim Merlier, Jonathan Milan, Biniam Girmay.
Winner: Jonathan Milan

Stage 9 – Chinon → Châteauroux (174 km, bunch sprint)

Sunday 13 July. East along the Loire then across Berry. A day built for sprint trains: no real climbs and a final 1 600-m straight in the Croix Blanche retail park.
Favorites: Tim Merlier, Jonathan Milan, Dylan Groenewegen.
Winner: Tim Merlier

Stage 10 – Ennezat → Le Mont-Dore (165 km, Massif Central)

Monday 14 July. Bastille Day tackles volcanic Auvergne. A series of climbs (Cornadore, Orcival) precede the final push up Puy de Sancy (5.5 km @ 7 %, last ramps 11 %).
Favorites: Ben Healy, Andreas Leknessund, Luke Plapp.
Winner: Simon Yates

Stage 11 – Toulouse → Toulouse (157 km, rolling sprint)

Wednesday 16 July. A loop south-east of the Pink City with two third-category climbs. Sprinter teams must tame local punchers before a lightning-fast finale on Île du Ramier.
Favorites: Tim Merlier, Jonathan Milan, Wout van Aert.
Winner: Jonas Abrahamsen

Stage 12 – Auch → Hautacam (181 km, high mountains)

Thursday 17 July. First Pyrenean summit finish: Hourquette d’Ancizan, Spandelles and Hautacam (13.6 km @ 7.8 %). Team climbers must set a fierce tempo to isolate rivals.
Favorites: Ben Healy, Felix Gall, Lennert Van Eetvelt.
Winner: Tadej Pogačar

Stage 13 – Loudenvielle → Peyragudes (11 km, mountain TT)

Friday 18 July. A short but brutal TT: 8 km of valley tempo then the Peyragudes wall (2.4 km @ 8.4 %, final bend 16 %).
Favorites: Tadej Pogačar, Remco Evenepoel, Jonas Vingegaard.
Winner: Tadej Pogačar

Stage 14 – Pau → Luchon-Superbagnères (183 km, Pyrenean marathon)

Saturday 19 July. Aubisque, Aspin, Portillon, then a 19-km climb to Superbagnères (avg 6.2 %). Over 4 500 m D+ will test freshness.
Favorites: Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogačar, Remco Evenepoel.
Winner: Thymen Arensman

Stage 15 – Muret → Carcassonne (169 km, transition)

Sunday 20 July. Straight east toward the medieval citadel. The Autan wind can shred the bunch, but grouped sprinters will chase one of their last chances before Paris.
Favorites: Tim Merlier, Biniam Girmay, Wout van Aert.
Winner: Tim Wellens

Stage 16 – Montpellier → Mont Ventoux (172 km, legendary summit)

Tuesday 22 July. After 100 km along the Med, the peloton tackles the Giant of Provence via Bédoin (19 km @ 7.5 %), baking heat then lunar landscape.
Favorites: Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, Primož Roglič.
Winner: Paret-Peintre

Stage 17 – Bollène → Valence (161 km, cross-winds)

Wednesday 23 July. Racing down the Rhône valley: if the mistral blows, echelons will rip the bunch until a technical S-bend in Valence.
Favorites: Tim Merlier, Jonathan Milan, Dylan Groenewegen.
Winner: Jonathan Milan

Stage 18 – Vif → Courchevel (Col de la Loze, 172 km, Alps HC)

Thursday 24 July. The sole finish above 2 000 m, and what a climb – 28 km up the Loze with ramps to 18 %. Huge GC showdown three days before Paris.
Favorites: Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, Primož Roglič.
Winner: O'Connor

Stage 19 – Albertville → La Plagne (130 km, high mountains)

Friday 25 July. Short but savage: Cormet de Roselend then 17 km to La Plagne-Bellecôte (max 12 %). Fatigue will bite; domestiques scarce at 2 000 m.
Favorites: Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, Primož Roglič.
Winner: Thymen Arensman

Stage 20 – Nantua → Pontarlier (185 km, last hurrah)

Saturday 26 July. Jagged Jura hills and the Faucille Pass offer breakaway artists a final shot if sprint trains are spent.
Favorites: Alaphilippe, Magnus Cort, Wout van Aert.
Winner: Kaden Groves

Stage 21 – Mantes-la-Ville → Paris Champs-Élysées (132 km, final sprint)

Sunday 27 July. A festive parade to the capital, then eight laps on the Champs-Élysées cobbles. Sprint trains launch from the Concorde corner towards one of cycling’s most coveted stage wins.
Favorites: Van Aert, Jonathan Milan, Pogačar.
Winner: Van Aert

Withdrawals and injured riders

Official list of riders who left the 2025 Tour de France after stage 9:

• Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers) – withdrew after a crash on stage 1.

• Stefan Bissegger (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) – withdrew after a crash on stage 1.

• Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) – withdrew after a crash on stage 3.

• Émilien Jeannière (TotalEnergies) – did not start stage 5 (broken shoulder blade from stage 3 crash).

• Jasper De Buyst (Lotto–Dstny) – did not start stage 5 (persistent fever).

• Mattia Cattaneo (Soudal Quick-Step) – withdrew on stage 7.

• Jack Haig (Bahrain Victorious) – withdrew on stage 7.

• Edward Dunbar (Team Jayco AlUla) – withdrew on stage 8.

• João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates) – withdrew on stage 9.